Home science No, there were not 40 patients in one week out of every 100,000 inhabitants in France

No, there were not 40 patients in one week out of every 100,000 inhabitants in France

No, there were not 40 patients in one week out of every 100,000 inhabitants in France

On December 23, 2021, researcher Laurent Tubiana said on CNEWS: “There were 40 patients in one week out of every 100,000 inhabitants in France, 40 patients (…) Than It is a very common epidemic“.

This statement was widely transmitted on social networks. hereAnd hereAnd here or here. The researcher’s numbers are incomplete and represent only a portion of the data for COVID-19.

Laurent Tubiana Characters

Its numbers come from goalkeeper network. A health research and monitoring network based on monitoring infected patients acute respiratory infection (ARI) Seen by a general practitioner or pediatrician. It consists of 1,314 liberal general practitioners (ie 2.1% of liberal general practitioners in the French capital) and 116 liberal general practitioners (ie 4.3% of liberal pediatricians in the French capital).

Data from the Sentinelles network has been integrated into the comprehensive national surveillance coordinated by Public Health France. In any case, the network is identifying data on COVID-19 in hospitals or nursing homes. CheckNews from Liberation has already covered this topic in an article here.

in a final report, at week 50, the Sentinel Network observed 39 cases per 100,000 population. This represents 25,509 new cases of COVID-19 After consulting a general practitioner (With the IRA).

Capture the latest Sentinel network report
Capture the latest Sentinel network report
Evolution of the infection rate.  Guardian network source
Evolution of the infection rate. Source: Sentinel Network

But this report does not take into account other data, such as hospital data.

Public health numbers in France

The numbers from Public Health France regarding new cases of COVID-19 (which includes those from the Sentinel Network) are actually much larger than researcher Laurent Toubiana claims.

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As of 23.12.2021, 91,608 new cases of COVID-19 recorded in the last 24 hours and 370426 in one week. (secondary source). This means that the infection rate is more than 560 per 100 thousand people. However, these numbers do not indicate the number of patients withacute respiratory infection. However, they are still consideredcovid case“.

cases and patients

In its latest report, Public Health France Reports indicate that 48% ofCaseSymptoms appeared at week 50 (So ​​sick). source: https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/content/download/400096/3305200 . i.e. 177,804 declared patients(or 265 patients per 100,000 residents of a total population of 67 million). Very far from the 40 patients per 100,000 residents that the researcher declared and that the Sentinel Network also considers to be a “Covid case”.

In addition, a A recent JAMA network study It reveals that 59.5% of COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic (and therefore sick). Cases of the virus were reported in France over a one-week period, and that would account for more than 220,000 symptomatic cases. Although it is difficult to transfer the study, Editorial noted in December that in week 47, from November 22 to 28, there were approximately 30,000 new cases per day, After SPF, or 208,631 infections during the week, about half of which were asymptomatic (patient).

Finally, the hospitalization rate varies greatly by region:

At the time of this article’s publication, the CNEWS post is still live.

reality check

emphasis There were 40 patients in one week out of every 100,000 inhabitants in France

Rule : blunder. This number is incomplete and represents only a portion of the statistics related to COVID-19.

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Article modified 12.24.2021 at 9:02 am: JAMA Network study and Libé article added

The article was modified on 24.12.2021 at 12:29: Internet users do not seem to distinguish between “cases” and “patients”. That is why we added a “cases and patients” section in the article. He moved one sentence to the next paragraph at 2:25 pm.


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