According to calculations, the risk of an escape variant of the coronavirus increases if a large part of the population is vaccinated but containment measures are lifted.
11:01 AM, July 30, 2021
for the occurrence of SARS-CoV-2-VarianteWho can bypass vaccination protection?escape variableIt should be avoided as much as possible containment measures How do Maskintragen or leave a distance Even End of vaccination campaigns stay straight. This is the result of a study conducted by researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology (IST Austria) in Klosterneuburg (Lower Austria) in the journal “Scientific Reports”. You should be especially careful, especially at times when vaccination rates are relatively high.
The team surrounding Fyodor Kondrashov and Simone Rela wrestled over the question of their possible presence The spread of escape variables under different conditions. To do this, the scientists extended a classic epidemiological model to include evolutionary assumptions about the evolution of rare mutations and the impact of vaccinations through vaccines on the epidemic, they explained in an online press conference organized by the specialist journal.
Previous disruptions in the fight against epidemics through known variables have impressively demonstrated that pathogens can change cheerfully. “It is difficult to predict the evolution,” Kondrashov said, but one can clearly state that a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 is more likely to develop a mutation that will escape the immune defense formed by vaccination if it gets as many chances as it can. . Anyone who has been infected during the pandemic, It’s like a small bioreactor. A small potential breeding ground in general for a new variant, according to Rela. so be “Vaccines are our best option”to prevent it.
This shows how important it is to implement vaccination campaigns as quickly and as widely as possible – at the global level, according to the researchers, who, in the course of their calculations, also encountered a paradoxical effect: according to their analyzes If the risk of creating an escape route increases when a large part of the population is already vaccinatedThe scientists wrote in their work that transport routes are not controlled by containment measures at the same time. Especially if many are already vaccinated against the wild type and its partners, the advantages of the escape variant will be more pronounced and it will spread faster in the population.
Calculations over three epidemic years showed that such a pathogen was more likely if about 60 percent of the ten million simulated population had been immunized. For comparison: in Austria less than 60% of the population is partially immunized and just over 50% is fully immunized.
However, one can arm themselves against this scenario: “Our model also shows that if the vaccination campaign is nearing completion and non-pharmacological interventions remain, there is a possibility that Vaccine-resistant mutations are completely eliminated from the virus populationRila said.
Overall, the results will show that as the pandemic continues, new factors other than the number of infections or deaths will also become decisive. Kondrashov stressed that one must now pay attention to several ways to prevent the further development of the virus as much as possible.
From this perspective, it doesn’t seem pointless to advise people to do that too Wear masks if they have already been vaccinated. Because it is always possible that there is already an undetected resistant virus, the transmission routes of which must be cut off even at the end of the vaccination campaign. Certain rethinking is needed here, the study authors are convinced, who also want through their work to contribute to the discussion about withdrawing containment measures.