Choice for UFC 325. Why are experts divided between Volkanovski and Lopez?

Alexander Volkanovski beat Diego Lopes to reclaim UFC gold in April, but don't expect a one-sided rematch

The first high-profile fight of 2026 headlines Saturday at UFC 325 in Sydney.Homegrown actor Alexander Volkanovski, who lives an hour and a half from Sydney, claimed the UFC featherweight title in the third round against Diego Lopez at UFC 314 last April.Just eight months later, Lopez looked to change the script.He came back.

Lopes Volkanovski will meet again in a rematch that our panel of fighters, trainers and analysts do not see eye to eye.Performances are split between another Volkanovski masterclass and an early night courtesy of Lopes.

Featherweight title fight

Volkanovski looked good in his last match against Lopes.Diego needs to be careful and ready to get knocked out in order to land the shots that will knock out Volkanovski.I don't think he can beat Volkanovski by submission or decision, so there needs to be a knockout here.To do this, he has to put himself in harm's way and say to himself: "One of us is falling, I hope it's you."Ultimately, Volkanovski is too good for Lopes' plan to succeed, and he'll be better all around.-- Dustin Poirier

Last time Volkanovski won, but he couldn't take down Lope.The first fight looked pretty easy for Volkanovski, but if Lopes can get back on his feet, he'll be able to put together better combinations.He has power that could cause problems for Volkanovski.Volkanovski is a gambler;he is set to fight someone and challenge himself.But Lopes isn't here for a challenge, he's looking to hurt you.I think there will be situations in this fight where he can hurt Volkanovski.Diego sets up a stream of violence that eventually catches up with Volkanovski.-- Din Thomas

Lopes is younger, stronger and faster than Volkanovski.I think that he will make the necessary adjustments in the rematch.Volkanovsky was close to being knocked out a few times in the first fight, but he wanted to get himself back.The only difference now is that more time has passed and Volkanovsky is even older.In the first fight, it looked like Lopez was hoping to catch Volkanovski with a big punch and knock him out, and Lopez had to reset when that didn't happen.He should be more patient this time.I like Volkanovsky's determination, but the time between fights doesn't help him, and it certainly doesn't hurt Lopez.-- Anthony Smith

We've seen in this sport that whenever a young, hungry fighter takes a big loss, he comes back better.It could be for Lopez, too.After losing a short fight to Movsar Yevloyev in 2023, we saw Lopez tearfully bounce back to get his first title fight last year.Volkanovski also bounced back from losses.But Volkanovski took time off between fights and came back as good as ever.While Diego is dangerous, Volkanovski knows the risks and will have the right plan to defend his title.It's going to be a tough fight that's going to be tougher than the first fight, but Volkanovski will finish it in the end.-- Michael Chiza