John Fingerland: Python will have more headaches from Iran

Iran is doing everything it can to make itself a major issue in US foreign policy. This is most undoubtedly recalled by violating the limits set by the international agreement on the limits of the nuclear program.

The agreement was signed by Barack Obama on behalf of the United States in 2015, and three years later the US signature was canceled by Donald Trump, saying it was a bad deal. On top of that, he introduced new sanctions against Iran.

Tehran described the deal as “very unfavorable”, but since Trump’s retreat, the Iranian government has sought to return to the unfavorable deal. This is true of his critics, who claim that Iran is gaining a lot and losing a little.

At the same time, it is an agreement that the Obama administration considers to be its most important foreign policy victory, so Obama’s vice president and now chief Trump leader Biden is expected to return before 2016. This is the situation the Iranians are trying to take advantage of, however he seems to find it very difficult.

Above all, however, the Arab Gulf states and Israel, the countries that have argued from the outset, will return to the original treaty, a missile program that initially argued that Iran would allow Iran to continue its work on nuclear military research, lift sanctions, and at the same time allow regional expansion and development. The “Obama” deal does not apply.

Nerodostne variant

So Biden faces a variety of options – returning to the original agreement, that is, throwing an American ally back into the region – that in many ways the success of Obama’s foreign policy was a major goal at his own door. Or including the validity of additional sanctions, which means that the matter should continue in Trump’s line – it won’t work for him at home. Or to review and, if necessary, seek an amendment to the original agreement opposing Iran for valuable and very specific practical reasons.

A lot has happened in the area of ​​relations with Iran in recent years, including the assassinations of leading Iranian officials, General Qasem Solajmani and the head of nuclear research. Mohsena Fasrasadeha. The state of Iran’s economy and domestic pressure on the regime worsened, but at the same time Iran continued to expand in the Arab world.

Iran is taking more clear steps to attract attention to itself. This violates the agreement, which is valid even without a US signature, but according to Tehran, the agreement without US involvement and with US sanctions makes no sense. That is why Iranians have begun to produce new reserves of enriched uranium, and according to the new US Secretary of State, Tehran has only a few weeks to acquire enough supplies for nuclear tariffs.

At the same time, they are implementing new centrifuges, and the Iranian opposition says it has discovered a new secret workplace near Tehran. Iran also detained a South Korean ship under open pretext. His officers arrested and spied on several foreigners, including those with US passports. Executions were expedited, including by political opponents deported from abroad to Iran.

A temporary half contract?

One reason for this trade is the situation in Iran. The nuclear deal is the result of the efforts of a group around the president Hasana And Bruhani to implement it against the conservative forces. But as long as US sanctions last and a certain amount of money flows into the country for the oil sold, its condition will worsen for conservatives and disgruntled civilians.

This year, Iran’s presidential election is taking place, and the Rouhani circuit is trying to provoke the impression that it would be more favorable for the United States to comply and soon lift sanctions – otherwise it is said to support someone far worse than Rouhani.

However, at the same time, Arab and Israeli opposition to Americans returning to an agreement is even louder, which they say has proven its leakage in recent years, Trump said.

We have mentioned the various ways in which Biden can go. The fourth option is that the wolf will eat at least temporarily, and the goat will be whole, meaning that the United States and Iran will negotiate a temporary semi-agreement that will allow both sides to keep their faces and offer concessions.

So far, according to US officials, they appear to have well-defined goals that are far less powerful than their Iranian counterparts.

The author is a commentator on Czech radio