Shrinking population
China is no longer the most populous country in the world
by Kay Stobel
04/13/2023 at 7:41 PM
For a long time, China was indisputably the most populated country. But according to UN forecasts, she will now lose this title. Because China’s population is shrinking – however, the contender for first place continues to grow. But for how long?
China has always been one of the most densely populated regions of the world. This is due to the vast areas of fertile soil and the favorable climate for agriculture. There were also long periods of political stability in the past centuries, and the population survived bloody wars. However, the same applies to India.
Since the 1950s, with the improvement of medicine and agriculture, all dams have been broken: China and India have grown to huge populations. China crossed the one billion mark in the 1980s, followed by India in the late 1990s. Today, just over 1.4 billion people live in both countries – more than Europe and North and South America combined.
While China has long been the most populous country, a change in leadership is now imminent: according to UN forecasts, India will overtake China on April 14. However, according to demographers, this date should be treated with caution: “It’s a rough estimate, a best estimate,” Patrick Gerland, head of the UN’s population forecasting division, told the Associated Press news agency.
neglected earlier than expected
Indeed, experts have long predicted that India will not overtake China until later in the decade. The fact that it is almost time for 2023 is due to the continuing decline in China’s fertility rate, that is, the average number of children per woman. This was 1.2 in the People’s Republic, making it one of the lowest rates in the world.
But in India too, the fertility rate has been declining rapidly in recent years, most recently with two children per woman. In the 50s it was still 6, and in the 90s it was just over 3. Now, for the first time, the significant 2.1 mark is less than a shot, and from that point on the population inevitably shrinks. So there is no longer any talk of a population explosion in India. However, India’s population should continue to grow for the time being. According to the UN’s average estimate, the country could pass the 1.5 billion mark by the end of the decade.
India’s population explosion has stopped
But why does India continue to grow when the fertility rate is less than 2.1? This is due to the special age structure: more than 40 percent of the population is under 25 years old. Many women are now of childbearing age. If every 300 million children had an average of 2 children, then 600 million children would be born. At the same time, there are just under 100 million Indians over the age of 65. So there can’t be as many people dying as new ones being born.
However, further development in India is accompanied by many unattainable things: in addition to the fertility rate, life expectancy also plays a role, both of which are factors that change unpredictably. So UN projections vary widely at the periphery: the maximum estimate for India is more than 2 billion people in 2100, and the lower estimate is about 1 billion, less than today.
China is already shrinking
For China, the projection range for 2100 is between 1.2 billion and 490 million. It is likely that the country has already passed its population peak of 1.4 billion: At the start of the year, the Beijing Bureau of Statistics reported its first population decline in six decades. And the median age, with exactly half the population younger and half the population younger, is 39 in China, which is comparable to a developed country like the United States. In India, the average is 28, more than in emerging countries like Mexico or South Africa.
And China’s population is aging rapidly: the country now has the largest number of elderly people in the world. In 2010, 254 million Chinese were over the age of 60. Their number is expected to increase to about 400 million by 2040, more than a quarter of the population. In India, the proportion of elderly people is likely to be much lower for much longer.
These developments have ramifications for the two superpowers: in India, a growing labor force can also fuel growth in economic activity. In China, on the other hand, there are fewer and fewer adults of working age to support the aging population. As a result, economic dynamics could diverge further, which should ultimately play a role in power and influence in the region. The fact that India outnumbers China is probably more than just a fun statistical fact.
