‘Porcupine Strategy’: How Taiwan Prepares for China’s Massive Offensive |  Policy

China regards Taiwan as its own territory – and is preparing an attack on the democratic island nation. The massive military exercise begs the question: Will Taiwan (population 23.6 million) have anything militarily against invading China (population 1.4 billion)?

said Admiral A. Lee Hsi-min, former Taiwan Army chief, to The Japan Times. Therefore a “denial strategy” is necessary – the Chinese military must be denied access to the airspace as well as the sea route to Taiwan in order to keep its armed forces in check.

Expert: Taiwan needs new defense strategies

Lee criticizes whether Taiwan is actually capable of doing so. “We urgently need to change our training methods, our operational concepts and our general military doctrine,” the former military man said at the end of March. He expressed concern that Taiwan was not preparing quickly enough for a Chinese invasion and would not be able to repel China’s attack without a fundamental change in its strategies.

According to Lee, Taiwan will need to develop “unequal capabilities” to be able to withstand invasion and survive a large-scale Chinese attack. The biggest danger: the Chinese will not attempt to take the island until they are sure they have “wiped out most of our forces.” Otherwise, they risk “making themselves weak.”

► Invasion is only a “last resort” for Beijing. Before doing so, China will seek to occupy the archipelago off Taiwan, blockade the island country from the outside world and launch long-range precision strikes.

Chinese fighter pilots take part in a military exercise near Taiwan

Chinese fighter pilots take part in a military exercise near Taiwan

Foto: HANDOUT/via Reuters

Taiwan should get the first and second strikes

Our military strategy is mainly defensive, which means that if there are strikes, we will strike first. This means we have to make sure we can withstand the first and second strike while we can strike back,” Wu Zouli, an expert at the Taipei National Defense and Security Research Institute, told The Japan Times.

Chinese aircraft carrier in the Pacific.  The Japanese military released this recording

Chinese aircraft carrier in the Pacific. The Japanese military released this recording

Photo: HANDOUT/AFP

How is the “porcupine strategy” supposed to work?

Asia expert Julio Pugliese (Oxford School of Global and Regional Studies) predicts a “porcupine strategy”: this aims to strengthen Taiwan’s “quills” and make it difficult for China to “swallow” the porcupine.

This means that Taiwan should focus on expanding its asymmetric capabilities in order to increase costs for China as much as possible. Taiwan could also learn from Ukraine, which managed to inflict heavy losses on its militarily superior (according to the numbers) adversary.

Fighter planes and warships off Taiwan Huge military maneuvers by the Chinese

Beijing said Monday that peace in the Taiwan Strait and the island’s independence are incompatible. “Taiwan independence and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are mutual,” said a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman.

This means that China does not want to tolerate an independent and democratic Taiwan – and threatens military escalation. China has been conducting military exercises off the coast of Taiwan for three days. According to her own statements, the Chinese military practiced “locking down” the island on Monday. Dozens of military aircraft are being used off Taiwan to simulate an “air blockade” of the island, according to Chinese state television station CCTV.

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