It is impossible to say that a person infected with the Coronavirus will definitely pass it on to another person. But we can estimate the potential for such a case to occur, especially in a closed environment where Sars-Cov-2 has been shown to spread very quickly. The good news is that it is thus possible to test measures to try to reduce this risk.
Researchers at the Max Planck Institute in Mainz have developed an algorithm Thus, it was clarified in a study published at the end of November 2020 Ventilate the room you are in regularly Significantly reduce the risk of transmission of the COVID-19 virus.
Thanks to their mathematical model, Nice-Matin built this simulator to help you appreciate the dangers posed by your environment (and year-end festivities). “Basic” mode corresponds to a room of 25 sq.m. and 2.50 m in height, without ventilation or an open window (living room for example), where you can stay for 5 hours, with 6 people without a mask, one of them was injured talking Sars-Cov-2 and infectious , approximately 50% of the time (or 2:30) in a normal voice.
Your individual risk of infection will be 30%. With the window open for 10 minutes every hour, this risk drops to 12%.
It is up to you to adjust the room’s size and characteristics (ceiling height, ventilation), the number of people there, the duration of the event, whether or not to wear a mask, speaking time and volume, to match your situation.
One constant: Only one person with Covid-19 was among the attendees (but not yet known, researchers consider it to be in the highly contagious stage, two days before the disease was ‘announced’).
Attention, the simulator takes into account respect for “barrier gestures”, that is, a distance of about 1.50 meters between people. Focuses on transmission of the virus through aerosols — exhaled when one breathes, talks, sings, screams… — excluding direct contamination through larger-diameter droplets of saliva, which scientists believe fell to the ground from this distance.
This article, first published on December 15, 2020 and produced using models and data from the Max Planck Institute, is inspired by: German weekly simulation Die Zeit, using the same data. He was himself inspired by the works from the stateAbout the transmission of the coronavirus in the air.
Of course, this is just a simulation, and the probabilities calculated here may vary greatly under real conditions. For example, the more people there are, the higher the risk of another person catching Covid-19, but the simulation only assumes one infected person, the infection is “normative” and cannot be modified (chosen at the time assumed to be “higher”, two days ago from the declaration of symptoms). The “safety” distance between people in all scenarios is estimated at 1.50 meters because it is recommended by the German government.
The goal of the German researchers through this modeling is to show the effect that certain measures (ventilation, wearing a mask) can have on the circulation of the virus.