COVID-19: Can we really say that “anyone who is not immunized will get delta-type”?

How do you convince a population that has not yet been vaccinated to make an appointment? Director General of the Regional Health Agency of Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Benoit ElbaudAnd the I wanted to be totally anxious on Saturday. At risk of doing too much? According to him, the unvaccinated will inevitably be infected with the delta type. It could become the majority among new cases in France by the end of August. It is already leading to a resumption of the epidemic in many neighboring countries, such as the United Kingdom.

What was said

BFMTV guest, Benobt Elleboode commented: “No one will get away with it. Anyone who has not been vaccinated will get delta-type.” That is, “even if she was already sick with a previous strain of the virus.” According to him, an unvaccinated person infected with the delta variant will pass it on “on average to six people”.

Conversely, people who have been vaccinated will be less likely to contract this type, and if it does, the risk of transmitting it is much lower.

Why is this reaction?

Many people reacted to this sequence on social networks, accusing the general director of ARS Nouvelle-Aquitaine of being disproportionately scary. First criticism: This delta variant cannot reach 100% of the unvaccinated population. In more than a year, with less transmissible strains, only 30% of the population in France could have been infected.

As for the fact that an unvaccinated individual will transmit the virus to an average of six people, Benoit Ellebodode stands for “R0,” called the “basic reproduction number” in scientific vocabulary. This is the average number of people an affected individual infects, but in a non-immunized, uncontrolled population. In theory, it would actually be estimated to be about 6 or even 7 for a delta. But the gestures of barrier and vaccination reduce it precisely, then we speak of an “effective R”. That’s just under 1 now, but it’s rising.

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Finally, regarding the possibility of reinfection with the delta variant if a person is already infected with SARS-CoV-2, nothing says that this is necessarily the case. Or, at least, that the risk is greater than with another variable. “Epidemiological studies are underway to assess the population impact of this variant in terms of the risk of reinfection, but according to preliminary data [en Angleterre], no indication in favor of a significant increase in this risk has been detected with respect to Delta”, notes Public Health France and the National Reference Center for Respiratory Infection Viruses. In the latest risk analysis, published on June 30.

How does he justify himself?

He called Benoit Elbaud, who was contacted by Le Parisien, that he made a “disturbing” speech, but does not regret the substance of his remarks. “I wanted to become a teacher by presenting the sentence differently: Everyone needs to be vaccinated, which was repeated by the Scientific Council and the Supreme Health Authority, because the message was not received,” he explains, well aware of the reactions his observations have generated. “To make things understandable, you have to say it clearly. But yes, some people who live secluded in the house or who are very careful probably won’t get infected,” adds the person specifically responsible for the land department, where the delta variable accounts for more than 70% of the pollution.

His fear, with the possibility or even the arrival of a fourth wave, is the observation that “many people are not vaccinated thinking they will escape the virus.” He is referring specifically to young people and wants to send a message to them to “stop thinking that you will have no part in the spread of this epidemic just because you are careful.”

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Briefly :

  • The director of the Nouvelle-Aquitaine Regional Health Agency estimated that all unvaccinated people would develop the delta variant, causing many reactions.
  • It is assumed with the Parisian that he forced the trait in order to alert the need for vaccination while the delta variant could become the majority in France by the end of August.

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